Will these strategies work? Are legislative reforms sufficient to ignite growth? And what about employment?
http://www.newindianexpress.com/editorials/Onus-on-Both-Govt-India-Inc/2015/09/25/article3046432.ece
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/bilt-pulls-out-of-malaysia-sells-stake-in-sabah-forest-for-500-million/article7686130.ece
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/chinks-in-make-in-india/article7686002.ece
Friday, September 25, 2015
Aggregate demand, corporate debt and deleveraging
Here are a couple of articles which indicate the consequences of a slack in aggregate demand on corporate debt and the growing need for companies to deleverage debt through asset sales. We can notice this trend not just in India but also in China.
http://www.livemint.com/Companies/JBn41JpbNPdPBxzOb2FzIO/LT-to-sell-assets-dilute-stake-in-noncore-businesses-AM.html
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/taking-a-haircut/article7678161.ece
Does the government need to step in and increase infrastructure spending? Can we hold on to "austerity" and worry about fiscal deficit targets? How do we know that infrastructure projects will not be underutilized (like ghost towns in China)?
These are questions to ponder over.
http://www.livemint.com/Companies/JBn41JpbNPdPBxzOb2FzIO/LT-to-sell-assets-dilute-stake-in-noncore-businesses-AM.html
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editorial/taking-a-haircut/article7678161.ece
Does the government need to step in and increase infrastructure spending? Can we hold on to "austerity" and worry about fiscal deficit targets? How do we know that infrastructure projects will not be underutilized (like ghost towns in China)?
These are questions to ponder over.
Friday, June 12, 2015
The pressing need for a new perspective
Today's piece by Prof. Deepak Nayyar in the Livemint (12.06.2015) clearly summarizes the problem with neoliberal economics - although the work neoliberal was never mentioned. At the core of neoliberalism is inflation targeting and its consequent implications for control of the fiscal deficit. These policies are strangling not just India but even countries like Greece which are unable to come out of depression. Prof. Nayyar has highlighted the need for "to question and get away from a blind belief in any idea, for ideologies that turn into faith are dangerous." Who can disagree? But critiquing economics has always been countered with the question; what is the alternative? I think here we need to turn to post-Keynesian economics ... and Modern Money Theory in particular.
Here's the link to Prof. Nayyar's article:
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/DubsmSzgYLBp3Swu8TqPII/The-interest-rate-conundrum.html
Here's the link to Prof. Nayyar's article:
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/DubsmSzgYLBp3Swu8TqPII/The-interest-rate-conundrum.html
Tuesday, June 2, 2015
My new book - In Search of Stability: Economics of Money, History of the Rupee
In Search of Stability: Economics of Money, History of the Rupee
Sashi Sivramkrishna
Manohar, New Delhi 2015, 490 pages
ISBN 978-93-5098-100-9
In Search of Stability seeks to understand the economics of money through a narrative on the history of the rupee. The period delineated for study is from the time of introduction of the rupee by Sher Shah Suri in 1542 up to 1971, the year which marked the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods era and a fixed exchange rate regime.
The underlying thread that runs through the narrative
is the positive economics of money and history of the rupee. This is a book that explains what happened
rather than raising normative questions on what ought to have happened or what
could have been a more appropriate monetary system for India.
The economics of money also draws us into
understanding the evolution of monetary instruments through history and their
impact on the economy. These instruments
cannot be separated from the institutions that develop and are developed by
them. A digression into a study of the
origins, nature and development of some of the most important monetary
institutions in India has therefore been included in this book.
While standards of living have risen enormously, money
has struggled to maintain its value across place and time, without definitive
success. This has brought with it crises
and severe hardship to entire societies; a lesson which the history of the
rupee unequivocally reveals.
The book is available through
the publisher, Manohar (New Delhi) or Amazon-India. Below are the links.
Friday, May 22, 2015
The general drift of neoliberalism
Two headlines caught my
attention today; from these we get a clear picture of the general drift of
neoliberalism. The Times of India (see link below) declared:
SOCIOECONOMICS:
BIG TALK, TIGHT FIST
Funds
cuts pinch edu & health schemes
Slashing the
education budget and keeping the outlay on health static in Modi government's
first Budget was seemingly based on the sound logic of the Finance Commission
giving bigger share of taxes to states.
But three months
later, harsh reality has sunk in. Mid-Day Meal (MDM) cooks, anganwadi workers
and Mahila Samakhya workers have hit the streets and state governments are
feeling the heat ….
The other headlines that was an interesting contrast to
this was in the Livemint.
Industries call
on Modi to spend Rs.1 trillion (Rs.100,000 crore) to boost economy
… At the top of India Inc.’s wish list are investments in
infrastructure, simplification of rules for acquiring land and implementation
of a proposed national sales tax. Executives say the government should take the
lead in financing new roads and public projects to give the maximum boost to
Asia’s third- biggest economy.
V.S. Parthasarathy, group chief financial officer at Mahindra and
Mahindra Ltd, suggests Modi make a dramatic move by investing as much as Rs.1
trillion ($16 billion) on infrastructure in the next six months. That would
provide the country with tangible assets, signal confidence in the future and
inject cash that would cascade through the broader economy …
So is industry really against spending and deficits per
se or does it prefer one kind of spending to another? And the government? Let’s be clear.
Friday, May 15, 2015
MMT cautions us against reacting to such headlines
Fed said to have emergency plan to intervene if U.S. defaulted on debt
WASHINGTON | BY SARAH N. LYNCH AND JASON LANGE
Reuters, Markets | Mon May 11, 2015 6:59pm EDT
RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE: IT SOUNDS SO PROFOUND IT MUST BE TRUE
In a recent piece, Tarun Ramadorai of the Said School of Business, Oxford University, has evoked upon Ricardian Equivalence (RE) to base his argument for optimal debt management.
Does economic theory offer any guidance about the optimal management of government debt?
One of the fundamental concepts in thinking about government debt is Ricardian Equivalence. David Ricardo posited in the 1800s that since debt must eventually be repaid by governments, it is essentially equivalent to future taxation (and will be perceived as such by taxpayers). Essentially all work in economics on public debt management relies on this concept in one way or another.
If debt and future tax policy are two sides of the same coin, the obvious step is to think through the role of debt in the context of sensible tax policy.
His article can be found at:
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/RJDJPFZ7X65Kqa4DlbSZPK/Public-debt-management-back-to-school.html
Without examining what he says about this, it is interesting to see how economists evoke RE to build upon their arguments. RE simply does not hold true in a world of fiat currency. Ricardo's principle perhaps held true in a world of commodity currency but economists seem indifferent to this changed reality.
The fundamental flaw with RE have been examined in this piece by Auerback and should be read.
https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/07/why-ricardian-equivalence-is-nonsense.html
But what interests me is how economic jargon and hi-sounding terms like RE find their way into popular discourse and are swallowed by general readers.
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