Growth rate predictions!

Students often ask how economists arrive at their growth forecast.  Quite arbitrary I would say.

Here is an excerpt from a question posed to Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor.

"Analysts are projecting GDP growth near about 7 per cent — Moody’s for instance talks about 7 per cent, Fitch says 7.8 per cent and Standard Chartered Bank 7.3 per cent versus 7.7 per cent earlier — and this is on the back of FY15 GDP growth coming in at 7.3 per cent. Are we still within this range including the lowest forecast by Moody’s at around 7 per cent?"

The interview can be read at:

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/you-should-never-make-predictions-about-the-future-certainly-not-oil-prices/article7707968.ece